Dutch Elections: Major Parties and Central Topics in Snap Vote

The Situation and Its Significance

Early legislative elections were triggered after the collapse of the previous government in June, when rightwing politician the Freedom party leader pulled his PVV from an increasingly fractious and largely ineffective governing alliance.

The PVV had achieved a surprising first place in the previous general election, and after extended negotiations formed a fragile four-party conservative alliance with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, centrist New Social Contract and liberal-conservative VVD.

Nevertheless, Wilders' government allies considered him too controversial for the prime minister position, which ultimately went to a ex-security head. Wilders, an anti-immigration commentator who has lived under police protection for two decades, resorted to criticizing from the sidelines.

He ultimately triggered the government collapse on June 3 after his allies declined to implement a radical 10-point anti-immigration plan that included deploying the army to guard frontiers, rejecting all refugee applicants, shutting down asylum centers and repatriating all Syrian refugees.

While backing of the PVV has decreased, surveys suggest the far-right, Islam-critical party is once more projected to win the most seats in parliament. But, major Netherlands political parties have all ruled out forming a government with Wilders.

At least 16 parties are forecast to gain representation, but no single party is expected to secure above approximately 20% of the vote. As usual, the next Dutch government, generally an significant force on the European and global scene, will be formed following alliance talks that could last months.

Electoral Mechanics and Party Environment

There are 150 MPs in the Dutch parliament, meaning a government needs 76 seats to form a majority. No single party ever manages this, and the Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments for over 100 years.

Representatives are chosen quadrennially – sooner when administrations fail – through proportional representation, based on an certified roster of candidates in a country-wide district: any political group that wins less than 1% of the vote is guaranteed a seat.

Similar to much of Europe, Netherlands political life have been marked in modern times by a sharp decline in backing of the traditional governing groups from the centre-right and left, whose share of the vote has decreased from more than 80% in the eighties to barely two-fifths now.

Domestically, this process has been accompanied by a remarkable multiplication of minor political groups: 27 are running this time, including a senior citizens' party, a young people's party, a party for animals, a basic income advocacy group, and a party for sport.

Key Players and Main Issues

Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, forecast to drop as many as eight of the 37 seats it secured last election. It advocates, among other measures, a total moratorium on refugee admissions, male Ukrainian refugees to be returned, the army to combat "street terrorists", and an termination to "woke indoctrination" in schools.

Two political groups, of the moderate right and left, are closely competing after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Netherlands government from the late 1970s to the beginning of the nineties, and again in the early 2000s, but slumped to only five mandates in the last election.

Nevertheless, under Henri Bontenbal, its youthful rising star, who joined political life just recently, the party has recovered strongly with a campaign highlighting the severe Netherlands housing shortage and a commitment of "reasonable, respectful governance". It is on course for as many as 26 seats.

GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the environmentalist party and the established social democratic party that is expected to become a complete unification, is on track to win a similar number, according to polling averages.

Led by the experienced ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, it has made constructing additional housing its biggest priority, and has controversially included a immigration limit of between forty to sixty thousand people a year in its platform.

Three additional groups look likely to be significant forces in the new parliament.

The liberal-progressive D66 is on course to gain seats – securing as many as seventeen, from its present nine – under its straight-talking young leader, with a platform centred on residential construction (it proposes to construct ten new urban centers) and an "individual basic benefit" for recipients.

The center-right VVD, the party of the ex-premier (now Nato chief), is forecast to decline to at most 16 seats from its present twenty-four, with its leader, accused of moving the group excessively rightward, held responsible for its decline. It is promising business tax cuts and reduced social benefits.

The anti-establishment, hardline conservative JA21 is a spin-off from a different rightwing formation – the previously successful, now controversy-plagued Forum for Democracy – and seems to be benefiting from an departure of supporters from the three major rightwing parties. It could secure fourteen mandates.

Besides the two main rightwing parties, both other partners in the ill-fated previous government, the BBB and NSC, are expected to lose out, with the centrist party not even sure of legislative seats.

The top issues so far have been migration policy, with multiple – sometimes violent – protests against proposed asylum facilities for asylum seekers, the living expenses, and the perennial Dutch problem of accommodation (the nation is short of four hundred thousand residences).

Potential New Government

Considering the highly fragmented state of Netherlands political landscape, what alliances are feasible is equally significant as who finishes first (or in this case, more likely second, since no major party will partner with Wilders, who maintains he intends to head a minority administration).

Following the vote, MPs first designate an informateur, who explores possible alliances. Once a workable alliance has been identified, a formateur, usually the head of the biggest prospective member, begins discussing the formal coalition agreement. This often requires months.

Various combinations look possible, most involving a mix of parties from centre left and moderate right. The most probable, according to coalition experts, include Christian Democrats and GreenLeft/Labour, plus Democrats 66 and several minor groups possibly incorporating JA21.